Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
