Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
